In Silver Blaze, Sherlock Holmes famously cracks the case by reasoning from “the curious incident” of the dog that didn’t bark in the night. While the Trump administration has done plenty of things in broad daylight that don’t require similar reasoning, there is a pattern of things that don’t happen, from which it is entirely fair to draw inferences. Examples include Mr. Trump’s long-promised tax returns (still being audited?), complete medical examination results, and the drip-drip saga of the Epstein files.
A current instance of things that should happen but don’t is the administration’s refusal to release the Department of Defense’s video of the second September 2 boat strike to either the entire Congress or the American public. Because the Niagara of troubling administration actions consumes so much of the available media bandwith and public attention, we must be sure not to lose sight of the missing video because it raises grave issues. It is all well and good that the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 President Trump signed the other day incentivizes the Pentagon to make it available to Congress on pain of losing some travel funds, but that is not sufficient.
What do we know?
First, we have irreconcilable accounts of what the missing video shows, with the few Republican legislators who have been permitted to view it insisting that it’s nothing special, while the few Democratic legislators who have had precisely the same opportunity report that it is deeply troubling. Let’s assume that different observers can plausibly have such divergent reactions and not simply engaging in partisan posturing. In either case, the American public should be allowed to judge so grave a matter for itself.
The Defense Department says the video is top secret. But how can it be classified at any level and hence exempt from mandatory release under the Freedom of Information Act when videos of the main strike some 40 minutes earlier, as well as numerous other Caribbean and eastern Pacific boat-strike videos, have been made public? On its face, it is arbitrary and capricious not to treat like cases in like manner. Under section 552(a)(4)(F)(i) of FOIA, personnel who arbitrarily and capriciously withhold an agency record must be referred to the government’s Special Counsel for possible disciplinary action. (Don’t hold your breath.)
But might there be some difference that justifies the different treatment? Certainly, more people were killed in the initial strike, of which video has made public, whatever its classification level may have been. One would think that the video of the second strike would be a stronger case for release. Might it be that the second strike video is gorier than the first? The government hasn’t said that. But if that is the reason, the solution here would be simple: preface the video with a warning, as is so often done in contemporary television news reporting of violent or otherwise disturbing events.
There is of course a theoretical possibility that the second video is being withheld on the notion that it preserves evidence of a war crime, since the two victims were shipwrecked and, presenting no plausible threat, were entitled under international law to be rescued rather than killed. That would rest on a faulty premise since, contrary to the administration’s position, the United States is not at war with anyone in the Caribbean or Eastern Pacific. That means the deaths must be examined under the human rights rubric of summary execution in the course of what must be treated as a de facto maritime law enforcement operation gone sideways. Viewed through that (proper) lens, the second-strike deaths, along with all of the others, would seem to fall, in the opinion of many observers, within the murder on the high seas provision of the federal criminal code and, for military personnel, Article 118 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice.
In any prosecution, video of any of these strikes would be material evidence and there would be major battles over whether it could remain hidden from the public in a public trial. The Classified Information Procedures Act governs, and it is possible a way could be found around disclosure to the defense, although I am skeptical that a satisfactory alternative to disclosure can be fashioned – or should be. If the government stands its ground, the result may be dismissal of the case. For courts-martial, Military Rule of Evidence 505(d), which is part of the Manual for Courts-Martial, provides: “Trial counsel [the prosecuting judge advocate] should, when practicable, seek declassification of evidence that may be used at trial, consistent with the requirements of national security. A decision not to declassify evidence under this section is not subject to review by a military judge or upon appeal.”
But there may never be a boat-strike prosecution (for example, if President Trump were to issue a blanket pardon). The video has already been the subject of a FOIA request. If it is withheld on the ground that it is classified, the classification is subject to review by a federal district judge, albeit under a highly deferential standard: the government need only show that its classification decision is logical or plausible. Still, the circumstances noted above suggest that such a case would not be a slam dunk for the government.
There is a further route to challenge the claimed classified status of the video. There is in the Executive Branch an agency called the Interagency Security Classification Appeals Panel, located within the National Archives and Records Administration. It can overturn classification designations and has done so on occasion in the past. In a case in which I was counsel, it declassified part of an Army record that had been classified explicitly in order to save the service from embarrassment. The Executive Order on classified information states: “In no case shall information be classified, continue to be maintained as classified, or fail to be declassified in order to: (1) conceal violations of law, inefficiency, or administrative error; [or] (2) prevent embarrassment to a person, organization, or agency.” Interestingly, under 32 C.F.R. § 2003.13(i), if the Appeals Panel orders a record declassified, the agency can appeal to the President himself, through the National Security Advisor. Conveniently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently both the National Security Advisor and head of the National Archives and Records Administration.
Which brings us to a final point. Although he denies having done so, President Trump has stated publicly that he would have “no problem” with releasing the video. He is the Commander in Chief. Pete Hegseth works for him, rather than the other way around. Who is in charge? Where does the buck actually stop?